The Naira recently appreciated against the dollar, closing at ₦1,567/$1 on December 5, 2024. This marks the third consecutive day of exchange rate appreciation since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched the Enhanced Foreign Exchange Market System (EFEMS).
Whilst it is natural to be curious or even concerned when exchange rates fluctuate, it’s important to understand that exchange rate movements are often short-term and should not necessarily prompt hasty decisions.
However, reacting solely to short-term fluctuations can undermine your original investment strategy and lead to missed long-term gains.
Now, let’s break down what is happening and, most importantly, what it means for your investment strategy.
What’s driving the Rally?
The recent rally of the Naira against the U.S. Dollar can be attributed to several key factors which combined to improve the currency’s position in the market. One of the major drivers is Nigeria’s recent successful Eurobond issuance, the country raised $2.2 billion in U.S. Dollar-denominated bonds.
This influx of foreign capital from foreign portfolio investors has significantly increased the supply of U.S. Dollars in the market. These bonds are offered and settled in dollars which has contributed to enhance liquidity and strengthen the Naira’s position against the dollar, providing a more stable foundation for the currency.
Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been strategically selling U.S. Dollars into the market. This move is part of the CBN’s broader effort to manage Nigeria’s dollar reserves while ensuring enough dollars are available to support the country’s economic activities.
By supplying more dollars in the market, the CBN aims to balance supply and demand for foreign currency, which has been critical in stabilising the exchange rate. Moreover, the CBN’s focus on spending Naira within Nigeria rather than exporting it to foreign markets has further helped stabilise the currency.
Another significant development is introducing the Enhanced Foreign Exchange Market System (EFEMS), which replaced the previous Investors & Exporters (I&E) window. The EFEMS platform enhances transparency and improves the price discovery process in the foreign exchange market. With more U.S. Dollars entering the system, this platform has made it easier for market participants to access foreign currency, which has been instrumental in narrowing the supply-demand gap and supporting the Naira’s appreciation.
Finally, the seasonal influx of dollars in December has also contributed to strengthening the Naira. This time of year traditionally sees an increase in the supply of dollars as Nigerians abroad send remittances home for the holiday season, and businesses import goods in preparation for the festive period. This regular inflow of dollars helps boost liquidity in the market, further contributing to the strengthening Naira.
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