FEC Approves N47.9 Trillion Budget Proposal For 2025

The Federal Executive Council (FEC), yesterday approved a N47.9 trillion federal budget estimate for the 2025 fiscal year during its meeting at State House, Abuja. Briefing newsmen after the FEC meeting held at the Council Chambers and presided by President Bola Tinubu.

Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, explained that the budget approval was part of the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) for 2025-2027, in accordance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007. Bagudu said the executive will put necessary efforts in place to ensure that the 2025 budget estimate was passed by the National Assembly and signed into law by the president before the end of December. Bagudu explained that FEC pegged the price of crude oil at $75 per barrel, exchange rate at N1,400 to the dollar, and oil production at 2.06 million barrels per day. He added that with the growth rate of 3.19 per cent, which came in the second quarter of 2024, the federal government will continue to tackle inflation, strengthen economic resilience, and provide more support for the economy in 2024.

Headline Inflation Expands by 118bps to 33.88% y/y in October

Consumer prices in Nigeria increased by 118bps to 33.88% y/y in October (September: 32.70% y/y). The outturn is 39bps and 48bps higher than Cordros’ (33.49% y/y) and Bloomberg’s median consensus (32.40% y/y) estimates, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation increased by 12bps to 2.64% (September: 2.52% m/m).

Food inflation rose significantly by 139bps to 39.16% y/y in October (September: 37.77% y/y). The higher Food inflation on a year-on-year basis was driven by increases in prices of the following items: Guinea Corn, Rice, Maize Grains, Yam, Water Yam, Coco Yam, Palm Oil, Vegetable Oil, Milo, Lipton, and Bourvita. On a month-on-month basis, food prices surged by 30bps to 2.94% (September: 2.64% m/m).

Similarly, core inflation (All items less farm produce and energy) increased by 94bps to 28.37% y/y (September: 27.43% y/y). The highest increases were recorded in prices of the following items: Bus Journey within the city, Journey by motorcycle, Bus journey intercity, Rents (Actual and Imputed Rentals for Housing Class), Meal at a local Restaurant (Accommodation Service Class), hair cut service, woman hairbrush, and women’s hairdressing (Hairdressing salons & personal grooming establishments Class). The core index settled at 2.14% m/m in October 2024 compared to the 2.10% m/m in the previous month

CBN to Use Any Tool to Fight Inflation: Cardoso

The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, has said the apex bank is prepared to use any tool at its disposal to manage inflation, which has continued to spiral northward.

Inflation figures had risen to 32.7 per cent in September after receding for two months as price pressures have been exacerbated by the government’s decision to scrap petrol and electricity subsidies and to devalue the naira twice since President Bola Tinubu took over last year.

Cardoso, speaking at the FT Africa Summit in London, said the apex bank is ready to use any tools at our disposal to manage inflation; as he said, he expected headline inflation to moderate in the coming months, and food inflation was proving stickier. Noting that the bank was working closely with the government to address this, Cardoso said Nigeria must not slacken in its reform drive as it is beginning to attract ‘growing and serious interest’ from foreign investors, citing recent visits to the country by Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon

Nigeria’s pension assets hit N21trn

Nigeria’s  contributory pension assets hit N21.14  trillion at the end of August 2024 as against  N20.79 trillion recorded in July 2024, showing N345.65 billion increase.

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According to latest data from the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the number of registered contributors, otherwise called Retirement Savings Account (RSA) holders, also grew to 10, 457,073 at the end of August 2024, from 10,419,520 recorded in July.

In second quarter (Q2) 2024, total contributions moved into individual RSA holders’ accounts stood at N 377 billion,  with the  public sector contributing N217 billion. The private sector contributed N160.83 billion, according to PenCom data compiled by analysts at the Pension Fund Operators Association of Nigeria(PenOp).

In the second quarter (Q2) of 2023, public sector contributions were higher at N286.69 billion, while the private sector contributed N234.47 billion, showcasing strong performance from both sectors. By contrast, in Q2 2022, the public sector contributed N136 billion, and the private sector, N101.96 billion, showing a steady but more modest increase in contributions.

Looking back at Q2 2021, both sectors contributed almost equally, with N97.17 billion from the public sector and N97.91 billion from the private sector.

This marked a year where the gap between sectors was minimal, signalling balanced pension remittances. In Q2 2020, the public sector contributed N118.50 billion, while the private sector’s contribution was lower at N70.69 billion, PenOp said.

Overall, the public sector has generally led in pension contributions over the years, but the private sector has been catching up steadily, especially since Q2 2021, where it nearly matched and sometimes exceeded public sector contributions. This growth suggests improved compliance, increasing employer participation, and growing awareness of pension obligations in both sectors. However, if more states were to join the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), these numbers could improve even further. Increased participation from states would lead to greater compliance, a broader base of contributors, and ultimately, a more robust pension system that could drive higher remittances and financial security for retirees across the country, analysts say.

Inflation To Nigerians:

After a three-month decline, Nigeria’s annual inflation rateclimbedagain in September 2024 to32.70%, marking a0.55%increase from32.15%in August 2024. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation rate is5.98%points higher than the26.72%recorded in September 2023.

Additionally, the month-on-month inflation rate in September stood at2.52%, which is0.30% higher than the 2.22% recorded in August. This indicates that prices increased faster in September compared to August 2024.

This data comes from the NBS Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September 2024, released earlier this week.

What is driving inflation in Nigeria?

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), September’s inflation was significantly influenced by surges in transportation costs and food prices. If you’ve filled up your fuel tank lately, you may have noticed thatpetrol prices jumped by 45%, driving up the cost of transportation across the country.

In a country where much of the economy relies on fuel for transportation and goods delivery, a jump in petrol prices means every part of the supply chain gets more expensive. Whether it’s the cost of getting produce to the market or the price of filling up your car, everything is feeling the pinch.

Then, there’s the impact of the floods. Northern Nigeria’s farmlands are crucial to feeding the country, and the floods have been devastating. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, the destroyed crops would have fed 8.5 million people for six months. The loss of this food supply means higher prices at the market, driving food inflation to a staggering 37.77% year-on-year. Prices of essential items like beef, vegetable oil, and everyday products like tea and powdered drinks have also spiked.

What does this mean for you?

Essential goods and services are becoming increasingly expensive, causing Nigerian households to grapple directly with the impact of rising inflation. The increase in prices of necessities, such as food and transportation, stretches budgets to the limit, impacting Nigerians’ overall cost of living.

Businesses also face challenges, such as escalating production and operations costs, narrowing profit margins, and hindering growth prospects. This could result in reduced profitability, job losses, and slower economic growth in the country.

For many, inflation can feel like being stuck in a cycle where your purchasing power keeps shrinking no matter how hard you work or save. The challenge is finding ways to protect and grow your money’s value.

That’s where Sync Capital comes in
In times like these, simply saving money in cash or a basic account won’t help; it’s actually losing value due to inflation. One way to stay ahead is to invest in assets that can grow and hold their value over time.

Let Sync Capital guide you with exact pointers.  Begin your journey today.

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The Power of Compounding: The Eighth Wonder of Wealth Creation

In the midst of market volatility and economic uncertainty, it’s easy to lose sight of long-term financial goals. However, focusing on the bigger picture is essential for building and sustaining wealth over time. Albert Einstein is often attributed with the quote, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it earns it; he who doesn’t pays it.

This saying encapsulates the significance of compound interest in wealth accumulation, highlighting the importance of three critical factors: time, returns, and the amount you invest.

To fully grasp the profound impact of compounding on your financial journey, it’s essential to delve into how these elements interact and influence the growth of your investments over time. Let’s explore each factor in detail and understand why compounding is a financial wonder.

The Power of Time in Compounding

Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors in history, often emphasises the value of time when investing. He has famously said, “The biggest thing about making money is time.” This simple yet profound statement underscores the importance of patience and the long-term perspective in wealth-building. To illustrate this concept, let’s consider a scenario where you invest =N=10,000,000 or its equivalent in Naira over various periods—180 days, 270 days, and 365 days—with an assumed rate of 10%.

After a year, your initial =N=10,000,000 investment would have grown to =N=11,000,000. This is only the beginning of what time can achieve. Extending the investment period to another 365 days with the same assumed interest rate of 10%, would increase your investment to =N=12,100,000. However, the true power of compounding becomes evident over a 5 year period, where your investment would have expanded to an impressive =N=16,105,000 — that’s approximately 162% increase of your original capital.

This example demonstrates the critical role that time plays in compounding. The longer your money remains invested, the more significant the growth due to compounding, exponentially increasing your returns as time progresses. This exponential growth occurs because compounding is not just earning returns on your original investment but also on the returns accumulated in previous periods. Over time, this effect becomes more pronounced, leading to substantial wealth accumulation.

The sooner you start, the more you stand to gain, making time one of the most valuable assets in investing. Starting early allows you to take full advantage of the compounding effect, even if you can only invest small amounts initially. For instance, a young investor who begins investing in their 20s can achieve the same financial goals as someone who starts later but has to invest significantly more each year to catch up. This is why financial experts often advise starting as early as possible, even if the initial

The Impact of Returns on Compounding

While time is crucial, the rate of return on your investments is equally important in the compounding process. The higher your annual returns, the more rapidly your money will grow. To further illustrate this point, let’s revisit the scenario above, adjusting the annual returns to 20%.

With a 10% annual return, your =N=10,000,000 investment would grow to =N=11,000,000 after 365 days—a respectable increase but far less than the =N=12,000,000 you’d achieve with a 20% return. On the other hand, if you could secure a 20% return each year, your investment would skyrocket to =N=24,833,200 after 5 years, demonstrating the exponential effect of compounding at higher rates.

These figures underscore the importance of striving for higher returns, though it is important to acknowledge that achieving such rates consistently over the long term can be challenging. Even modest increases in your annual return can significantly impact your wealth accumulation over time, reinforcing the importance of wise investment choices and effective portfolio management.

AtSync Capital, we understand the critical role of strong returns from fixed-income investments in the compounding process. In line with our core objective, we are strategically positioned to provide valuable insights and access to investment platforms that guarantee competitive returns on investments for discerning investors.

Their fixed-income offerings are tailored to provide stability and regular income, making them ideal choices for investors looking to balance risk and reward. By investing we strive to deliver steady returns that can serve as the foundation for your short to long-term investment strategy.

The Significance of Your Investment Amount

The amount you invest is the final piece of the compounding puzzle, and it is here that the magic of consistent contributions becomes most apparent. Regularly investing additional sums can dramatically increase the value of your investment over time. For instance, let’s say you start with an initial investment of =N=10,000,000 and then contribute an additional =N5,000,000 at the beginning of each year, with an average return of 10% per annum.

If you contribute an extra =N=5,000,000 annually, your portfolio will grow to =N=46,630,600 after 5 years.

However, it is crucial to note that these calculations assume a steady 10% return each year, which does not reflect the reality of fluctuating markets. The truth is that your returns will vary from year to year due to market conditions, economic factors, and other variables.

The Importance of Consistency and Discipline

The true power of compounding lies in consistency and discipline. While chasing after high returns or attempting to time the market may be tempting, the most reliable way to build wealth is to stay the course. By making regular investments and allowing them to compound over time, you can harness the full potential of compounding and set yourself up for a secure and comfortable financial future.

Additionally, it is essential to remember that compounding works both ways. Just as it can significantly grow your wealth, it can also magnify losses if poor investment choices are made. Therefore, maintaining a disciplined approach to investing, focusing on long-term goals and prudent risk management, is essential to fully benefiting from the power of compounding.

Conclusion

Compounding is undeniably one of the most powerful tools available to investors. You can significantly grow your wealth over time by understanding and leveraging the factors of time, returns, and the amount you invest. Whether you are just starting out or already have an established portfolio, there is always time to take advantage of compounding.

AtSync Capital, we are committed to helping you achieve your financial goals by providing the tools, resources, and expert guidance needed to make the most of your investments. Our platform is designed to help you invest wisely and take full advantage of the power of compounding to grow your wealth over time.

So why wait? Start your investment journey withSync Capital & Advisory Limitedtoday and let the power of compounding work for you. Invest now, and set yourself on the path to financial freedom and a prosperous future.

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Taxes paid by traders, mechanics rise by 49% in 2024 amid economic challenges

Credit to Nairametrics

Taxes paid by Nigerians involved in the wholesale and retail trade, as well as the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, surged by 49% in the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

This is according to data from the tax reports of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Based on the data released by the NBS, this leap in tax revenue is the result of hikes in both Value Added Tax (VAT) and Company Income Tax (CIT) receipts.

He further emphasized that the bank must remain focused on its core mandate of ensuring price stability, rather than being swayed by political and economic pressures.

“Our decision to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27.25% was a bold move. Higher interest rates, while painful for borrowers, are necessary to curb excess money in circulation and control inflation.

“Leadership is about making hard choices to secure long-term stability over short-term comfort in moments like these

“Leading through challenging times means avoiding the temptation to take on too many initiatives. The Central Bank must focus on its core mandate—price stability. It is easy to become distracted by various political and economic pressures, but as a leader, one must prioritise,” Cardoso said.

Building back trust in CBN

  • Furthermore, Cardoso explained that the focus of the new leadership at the CBN is on rebuilding trust in the markets and the system.
  • He added that this commitment is the reason behind the emphasis on policy transparency and the adoption of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) for foreign exchange transactions.
  • According to Cardoso, these efforts have led to a reduction in arbitrage and speculation in the market, as trust is gradually being restored among participants.

“Trust is the currency of central banking. If the public loses trust in the institution, the efficacy of its policies diminishes.

“Our decision to implement the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) is rooted in this understanding. 

“By enhancing transparency and providing more accurate oversight of forex transactions, we send a strong signal that the CBN is serious about fair and efficient markets,” Cardoso said.

What you should know 

  • Nairametricsreportedthat as of July 2024, only 36.3% of Nigerian households supported raising interest rates to control inflation.
  • The survey further revealed that 50.6% of respondents preferred a reduction in interest rates despite the rising inflation, while 13.1% remained undecided.
  • This division underscores the challenge faced by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in balancing inflation control with public demand for lower borrowing costs.
  • Under Yemi Cardoso’s leadership, the CBN’s MPC has implemented five interest rate hikes.

The initial increase took the rate from 18.75% to 22.75%, followed by subsequent hikes to 24.75%, 26.25%, and then, in July 2024, a 50 basis point increase to 26.75%.

Recently, the MPCraised the rate by an additional 50 basis points, reaching 27.75%.

These hikes, accumulating to over 800 basis points since Cardoso’s tenure began, aim to address Nigeria’s ongoing inflation issues, particularly high core and food inflation.

Investors sell off Nigerian bonds over good governance concerns amid high yields – report

Nigerian bonds faced selloffs in the second quarter of 2024, as investors increasingly prioritized good governance over high yields.

This is according to the Second-Quarter 2024 Report of the National Pension Commission (PenCom).

The trend reflects a broader shift in the risk appetite of global investors, particularly in emerging markets.

Despite attractive returns, effective governance in some sectors pushed investors to explore more stable options elsewhere, leading to a volatile quarter for Nigerian sovereign bonds.

7.82% decline in bond index

The report revealed that the S&P/FMDQ Sovereign Bond Index, which tracks the performance of Nigerian sovereign debt, dropped by 7.82%, falling from N593.86 billion in March 2024 to N547.61 billion by the end of June 2024.

The report read: “As of June 30, 2024, the S&P/FMDQ Sovereign Bond Index, which monitors the performance of sovereign debt issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria, recorded a further decline. The index decreased by 7.82% from N593.86 billion as at March 29, 2024, to N547.61 billion. This reflects continued volatility and changes in the sovereign bond market during Q2:2024.

“Also, Nigerian bonds experienced a sell-off as investors emphasized good governance over high yields in emerging markets.”

Investors’ concerns over governance overshadowed the appeal of high returns, especially as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised its Monetary Policy Rate to a historic 26.25% to curb inflation, which had risen to 34.19% by the end of Q2 2024.

It added: “Interest rates across the Naira yield curve showed mixed movements, with short-term rates rising by 190 basis points due to liquidity tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which raised rates by 150 basis points to a historic 26.25% during its May MPC meeting.”

Sales of N1.23 trillion in bonds

The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) intensified its borrowing during Q2 2024, auctioning N1.23 trillion in bonds. While this contributed to a retracement in bond yields from the elevated levels of Q1, the FMDQ S&P Nigeria Bond Index still saw an 8.2% rise in Q2.

However, the year-to-date performance remained negative at -3.9%, indicating that investor sentiment had not fully recovered.

The report noted: “On the longer end of the spectrum, the Debt Management Office (DMO) auctioned N1.23 trillion in bonds, contributing to a retracement in yields from the peak levels observed in Q1 2024, particularly across less actively traded bonds. This yield adjustment led to an 8.2% rise in the FMDQ S&P Nigeria Bond Index for the quarter, although the year-to-date performance remained negative at -3.9%.”

In an effort to tighten liquidity through Open Market Operations (OMO), the CBN recorded sales amounting to N2.9 trillion and a one-year stop rate yield of 28.95%.

Also, Treasury Bills sales, totaling N2.85 trillion in Q2, saw their average stop rates rise by 323 basis points, reaching 18.08%, while the one-year bill closed at 20.68% (effective yield: 26.03%).

Pension Fund Asset Managers invest in government securities

The report further showed that investments in Federal Government Securities surged by 6.22%, growing from N12.20 trillion in Q1 to N12.96 trillion by the end of Q2 2024. This increase was mainly due to investments in FGN Bonds, which accounted for 96.43% of total FGN Securities.

It added: “Pension Fund Assets were mainly invested in Federal Government Securities (FGN), which accounted for 63.27% of total assets. The composition of investments in FGN Securities were as follows: FGN Bonds, 96.43%; Treasury Bills, 1.95%; and Agency, Sukuk and Green Bonds, 1.62%.”

What you should know

Nairametrics earlier reported that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) incurred an estimated N1.55 trillion in interest payments for the 12 successful Treasury Bills (T-Bills) auctions conduced in the first six months of 2024.

The interest costs in 2024 were approximately 654.7% higher than the N205.63 billion recorded the same period of the previous year.

Data from the apex bank revealed that the apex bank has sold Treasury Bills worth N8.4 trillion in the first half of the year for tenors ranging from 91-days, 182-days and 364-day bills.

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